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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|