How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Thomas Martinez
Thomas Martinez

A tech-savvy writer passionate about simplifying complex topics for everyday readers, with a background in digital media.