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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.